Published in: New York Times (National Edition), Tuesday, June 27, (2000), Pages A1 and A20: 

"Clinton Raises Estimate of Surplus and the Stakes on How to Use It". 

Original Text and Figures (with WebEditor's Comments):
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By Richard W. Stevenson (WebEditor's Comments in Parentheses).

Washington, June 26 -

President Clinton raised his projection of the federal budget surplus today by nearly $1.3 trillion for the next decade, putting a breathtaking sum of new money on the table as the two parties and their presidential candidates battle over tax cuts, spending, and how to prepare for the nation's long-term challenges. 


Fig. 1.
(Estimates over the last 6 months of projected cumulative 10-year Federal budget surpluses, including the Medicare Trust Fund and other Trust Funds, but not the Social Security Trust Fund.) 

The new estimate brought the total surplus projection to slightly less than $4.2 trillion for 2001 through 2010. Of that, $2.3 trillion is projected to come from the Social Security system, and is considered by both parties to be off limits for tax cuts or spending programs.
Fig. 2.
(Annual changes in sources of funds for the increasing federal budget surplus, not including Medicare and Social Security payroll taxes, and the effects of overall economic growth. Note that the tax revenue appears as a slightly smaller number over the course of the 10 years, while the overall economy effect shows a marked increase each year. The effect of payroll taxes to the Medicare Trust Fund and the Social Security Trust fund is not shown.) 

In setting out his budget framework, Mr. Clinton also stressed that he would put the government on a path to eliminate the $3.5 trillion national debt (owed to private sources, and not including $2.2 trillion now owed to the Trust Funds) by 2012, a year ahead of his previous schedule, and to use part of the non-Social Security surplus to help extend the solvency of Medicare ( but not re-pay the Medicare Trust Fund for funds currently taken from that Trust Fund for general expenditures and to buy out current private bond-holders). 
Fig. 3.

(Annual changes in projected revenue sources to the federal budget over the next 10 years. Payroll taxes to the Medicare Trust Fund and the Social Security Trust Fund are Zero for 2000, since Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers is diverting these funds to his program to buy out the private owners of government bonds. These payroll tax Trust Funds continue to increase at a reduced rate over the next ten years, despite such raiding by the Treasury Department, while corporate income taxes decrease as a fraction of the total revenue annual increase each year.) 

The new surplus projections are to some extent subject to changes in the economy, and any nasty economic surprise could dim the chances of the surpluses materializing (and dim the chances for re-paying the looted funds of the Medicare Trust Fund and the Social Security Trust Fund).

Mr. Clinton acknowledged as much today. He said it would be a mistake to allocate all the projected surplus at this point, and he proposed a $500 billion "reserve fund" to be held aside until the fiscal situation becomes clearer and voters send a message about what they want to do with the money. 



Additional References:

1. "Gore Proposes Tapping Budget Surplus for Medicare Prescription-Drug Benefits".

2. "Social Security Trust Fund Used to Reduce National Debt".

3. "Bush and Gore on the Future of Social Security and Medicare".

4. "Gore's Plans for Medicare and Social Security Trust Funds".

5. "Wall Street Journal on the Social Security Trust Fund".



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